countryguy
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« on: October 20, 2016, 06:06:26 pm » |
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There's been a lot of talk, during this election cycle, of the impending demise of the Republican Party ----- and what will take its place. Will the Republicans effectively split, into a "RINO" Party, and a Tea Party? That's what a lot of people are kind of assuming, but is it likely?
I recently saw where someone suggested a different scenario, that I, really, hadn't considered, before. The suggestion was that, indeed, the Republican Party would, more or less, split, much along those lines. But, then, there would be a major realignment, involving all three resulting entities. Neither the Tea Party, nor the "traditional", or "moderate" Republican factions has enough adherents to win a major, especially national, election, on their own -- and they know it. What this person suggested, then, would be that the Tea Party faction would, actually, move a little bit toward the center, but not much - just enough to, hopefully, pick up enough additional support to remain significant. The RINO faction, in response, would move even further toward the center, hoping to start picking off the more moderate Democrats -- which would happen. In essence, the RINO's and the more moderate edge of the Democratic Party would find themselves on pretty much the same plane, and become a single, moderate party. And then, a new party, made up of left-of-moderate Democrats, along with the more liberal "Bernie" faction, would come about. The end result would be a farther-right-than-now Republican Party, a centrist, or even slightly right-of-center Democratic Party, and a new Liberal Party.
That would give us the 3-party system much of America has been hoping and hoping for, with the new party actually being a liberal party, left of the current Democrats. To many people, that would make sense. I've heard quite a few references, this year, of Hillary Clinton being "Republican Light", with the recognition that she does, sometimes, seem to be more center-to-right-of-center than many traditional Democrats. I don't know if that's really the case, but many people seem to feel that way. On the other hand, Bernie Sanders is significantly more liberal, on a number of issues (especially fiscal issues) than Ms. Clinton, and has a surprisingly strong following, that seems to be sticking around. And, Bernie's following is somewhat younger than the other political factions, today, which would indicate that their strength will only grow, in coming years.
Anyways, I heard this suggestion, and it seems to make sense. Just maybe, the impending "death of the Republican Party" will have more far-reaching effects on our national politics, than it initially appears.
But, a word of caution.
Don't get your hopes too high. While this could, actually, give birth to the 3-party system so many people ache for ----- it's unlikely to last, very long. That's where Article II, Sec. 1, of the Constitution, along with the 12th Amendment, come into play. To be elected, a candidate must receive a majority of votes, by the electoral college. It's unlikely, with three major parties competing, that this would come about. That means, it would be up to Congress to elect the new president - totally regardless of the popular vote. Today, that would automatically mean that whatever party holds a majority in the House of Representatives, would name their candidate as the winner (by a process that would give the congressional delegation from each individual state a single vote).
A 3-party election would complicate that, a bit. It could easily happen that no one, single party, would be able to muster such a majority. We would end up with a process much more resembling the parliamentary elections of Canada and Europe, where parties form coalitions - usually agreeing to pursue a common agenda with each other - to gather the required number of votes to elect one or the other of their candidates. In all likelihood, knowing a little of American politics, I would imagine that these coalitions would become more and more solid, within not that much time, as to end up forming the various factions into two major parties, again - as Britain has done, with the Conservative Tories, and the Labor Party.
But, through this whole process, where the "center" is, could well end up being somewhere else. Maybe further left. Maybe further right.
Who knows?
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